NASA’s Swift Observatory Is Falling to Earth. Here’s What to Know About the Impending Impact

In its lifetime, the satellite observed over 2,000 gamma-ray bursts and nearly as many supernovas, data from which contributed to more than 7,000 research papers. And its contributions are far from over. “Swift leaves us with an extraordinary archive of multiwavelength observations that will fuel new discoveries for decades more,” Domagal-Goldman added.

The Swift satellite is shown in July 2004 at Kennedy Space Center in Cape Canaveral, Florida.

Photograph: NASA

What to Expect From the Reentry?

The US Space Force estimates Swift is likely to crash on or around Friday, November 6—or at least whatever remains of the satellite will. Most of the space observatory is expected to disintegrate as it reenters the atmosphere. However, some pieces made of tungsten and parts of the mirrors could survive that chaotic process, Brad Cenko, NASA’s chief scientist for the mission, told the Associated Press.

“The most likely survivors are its six heavy reaction wheels, the spinning flywheels it used to aim itself, along with tougher telescope parts such as lenses and mirrors,” Dean Sladen, a quality manager and aerospace engineer at Accu Components, said to Space.com. “Only a handful of small, scorched fragments are expected to make it down—nothing recognizable as a telescope.”

Where exactly will that debris fall? Large areas of Africa, Australia, India, Southeast Asia, and Central and South America fall within the reentry zone monitored by the Space Force. If there is a more precise calculation, that information has not been made public, but it’s most likely that all Swift’s remaining pieces will end up in the ocean.

“NASA’s own orbital debris requirements state that the risk of human casualty from surviving debris shall not exceed one in 10,000, so it is highly likely this work has been completed but not published,” Sladen said regarding the risk assessment. “Personally, I believe it should be published, as NASA has done with previous satellites. The risk is almost certainly very small, but it would give people a clear, factual picture rather than guesswork.”

This story originally appeared on WIRED en Español and has been translated from Spanish.